Robertus Jinxes!

And just like that, at ten past ten on a cool and rainy Tuesday night, the Chicago White Sox come storming back against the Houston Astros in Game Three, a two run double, a long foul ball.

I've spent the time between pitches on the Outdoor Life Network, watching my pick to win the Atlantic fall for the ninth time in as many games, this time in overtime, shorthanded, skating four players on three.

The Sox and 'Stros each played 177 games to reach Game Three, some better than others. The Penguins have dug themselves into a hole, but we are early in the season yet. The Pens have 73 games to right the ship, but rest assured, the ship will right.

The Myth of Parity Lacking

This is the first in what I hope to be many Special Guest Posts here on The Sublime Sportsman. Here, Robertus passes the laptop to Jacob Luckey, local baseball disciple and aficionado, who addresses the myth of parity, as it pertains to the two American pasttimes, Major League Baseball and the National Football League. As always, comments are welcome.

The Parity, Lack of, Myth

While the NFL is praised for its parity, Major League Baseball is maligned for its lack of a salary cap, its guaranteed contracts, and its Yankee dominance. But let us examine the championships for each league since the inception of the Super Bowl in 1966.

NFL (24 teams in 1966, 32 now)

Team, no. of championships played for (record in)

Cowboys 8 (5-3)
Broncos 6 (2-4)
49ers 5 (5-0)
Steelers 5 (4-1)
Raiders 5 (3-2)
Redskins 5 (3-2)
Patriots 5 (3-2)
Dolphins 5 (2-3)
Packers 4 (3-1)
Bills 4 (0-4)
Vikings 4 (0-4)

Total record for tier: 30-26

Giants 3 (2-1)
Rams 3 (1-2)
Baltimore Colts/Ravens 3 (2-1)
Bengals 2 (0-2)
Chiefs 2 (1-1)
Eagles 2 (0-2)
Bears, Falcons, Panthers, Titans, Chargers, Jets, and Buccaneers, 1 each (3-4)

Total record for tier: 9-13

Twenty-four of the 32 teams have played for the championship.
The Indianapolis Colts (20 years relocated), Cardinals, Saints, Texans, Jaguars, Seahawks, Browns, and Lions have never played for the championship; the Texans and Jaguars are expansion teams of the past roughly 10 years, leaving the Cardinals, I. Colts, Browns, Seahawks, Lions, and Saints as the teams to reasonably have been expected to play for the championship that have failed to do so. All but the Colts have been mediocre for some time (combined, 18 winning seasons in the past 15).
Fourteen different teams have played for the championship in the past 10 years. Eight different teams have played for the championship in the past 5 years.

MLB (20 teams in 1966, 30 now)

Team, no. of championships played for (record in)
Yankees 10 (6-4)
Oakland 6 (4-2)
Orioles 6 (3-3)
Dodgers 6 (2-4)
Cardinals 6 (2-4)
Reds 5 (3-2)
Braves 5 (1-4)
Mets 4 (2-2)
Red Sox 4 (1-3)

Total record for tier: 24-28

Phillies 3 (1-2)
Pirates 2 (2-0)
Marlins 2 (2-0)
Blue Jays 2 (2-0)
Tigers 2 (2-0)
Twins 2 (2-0)
Royals 2 (1-1)
Giants 2 (0-2)
Padres 2 (0-2)
Indians 2 (0-2)
Angels 1 (1-0)
Diamondbacks 1 (1-0)
Brewers 1 (0-1)

Total record for tier: 14-10

Twenty-two of the 30 teams have played for the championship.
The White Sox, Devil Rays, Rangers, Mariners, Astros, Cubs, Rockies, and Nationals have never played for the championship; three of these teams (the Devil Rays, Rockies, and Nationals) are expansion teams of the past roughly 10 years, two others are playing this year (the White Sox and the Astros), and two others have been very competitive at times in the past five seasons (the Mariners twice lost in the American League’s championship series, in 2000 and 2001; and the Cubs two seasons ago lost in the, well, you know), leaving the Rangers as the only team to reasonably have been expected to play for the championship that has failed to do so while appearing quite hapless (they’ve only twice won more than 90 games).
Thirteen different teams have played for the championship in the past 10 years. Nine different teams have played for the championship in the past 5 years.

Conclusion
Among the teams in each sport that have played in five or more championships, 44 championships total were played for by those teams in each sport.
Thirteen Super Bowl teams played in three or fewer; 13 World Series teams played in three or fewer.
Only three teams in MLB that have been to the championship since 1966 have not played in more than one, and one of those (the Diamondbacks) is an expansion team of the past roughly 10 years; in contrast, seven NFL teams have played in only one Super Bowl, and only two of those are expansion teams of the past 10 years.
Teams in the NFL with four or more appearances (total of 56 appearances) are four games over .500; teams in MLB with four or more appearances (total of 52 appearances) are four games under .500. Obviously, the records are similarly inverted for the teams with three or fewer appearances. In other words, the top teams in the NFL have been more dominant than the top teams in MLB.
Only three MLB teams that have had ample opportunity to play for the championship have not done so, whereas six NFL teams with ample opportunity have not done so.

One might bring up bad owners, bad fans, and/or small markets, but that’s for another post. The data presented above make the case against the inarticulate argument that the NFL comes closer to achieving parity and that this parity explains its appeal.

Robertus Predicts!

Sitting back on the burgundy couch watching Andy Pettitte pitch to John Franco, up 4-3 in the bottom of the fourth, the Turner Field crowd chanting the unbearable faux-Indian war chant and waving red styrofoam tomahawks, ball four to Franco, Jeff Francoeur bunts down the third base line, barely fair, Brian Roberts grounds into an inning-ending double play.

We've an hour and forty-five minutes to kill before the first frozen puck drops on aught five, and so we stare into our faux-crystal ball, to prognosticate the final standings in the spring of aughtsix. And lo, the mall-bought crystal ball did portend a long, cold winter in Toronto, Miami, and Manhattan (but we knew that already), that Les Habitants du Canada will do better than people expect, but that, ultimately, Calgary would sip from the Chalice of Glory, while Washington gulps from the Dixie Cup of Shame. Here is how the divisions break down, from my suspect vantage point, listening to that incessant Atlanta chant:

Eastern Conference
Northeastern Division
5. Toronto Maple Leafs
4. Buffalo Sabres
3. Les Canadiens de Montreal
2. Les Bruins de Boston
1. Ottawa Senators

Atlantic Divison
5. New York Rangers
4. New York Islanders
3. New Jersey Devils
2. Philadelphia Phlyers
1. Pittsburgh Penguins

Southeastern Divison
5. Washington Capitals
4. Carolina Hurricanes
3. Florida Panthers
2. City of Tampa Lightning
1. Atlanta Thrashers

Playoff Picture: Ottawa (1), Pittsburgh (2), Atlanta (3), Philadelphia (4), Boston (5), City of Tampa (6), Montreal (7), New Jersey Devils (8).


Western Conference
Northwestern Division
5. Minnesota Tame
4. Colorado Avalanche
3. Edmonton Oilers
2. Vancouver Canucks
1. Calgary Flames

Pacific Divison
5. Dallas North Stars
4. Phoenix Coyotes
3. Los Angeles Kings
2. Anaheim Mighty Ducks of Anaheim
1. San Jose Sharks

Central Divison
5. St. Louis Blues
4. Chicago Blackhawks
3. Columbus Blue Jackets
2. Detroit Red Wings
1. Nashville Predators

Playoff Picture: Calgary (1), San Jose (2), Nashville (3), Vancouver (4), Ducks (5), Detroit (6), Los Angeles (7), Edmonton (8).

Robertus Retracts!

And so, mon amie, I've learned first lesson of sportswriting and web logging, namely, don't go running your mouth off, writing checks that your writing can't cash. Suddenly, I find myself here on the burgundy couch at half past eight, a little more than forty-seven hours before the first puck drops in Philadelphia, and I've written three reviews (New York, New York, and (of all places) San Jose), and a snippet of Vancouver:

Much like the San Jose Sharks, the 2003-2004 Northwest Division champions will be fielding aboot the same team as last season. The addition of Future Journeyman Goaltender Brent Johnson should take some of the burden off of Dan Cloutier, who has played no more than 62 games in any single season.. Team goals, assists, and points leader Markus Naslund, the best Swedish NHLer with a spleen, returns, as do embattled NHLPA president Trevor Linden and Ikea-esque center Jarkko Ruutu.
The biggest story for the 2005 Canucks will undoubtedly be the Return of Todd Bertuzzi. However, for this writer, the true story will be the line of Anson Carter, Henrik Sedin, and Daniel Sedin. Never before have three Tomas Kloucek Memorial Award winners partnered together to form a single NHL line. Behind Bertuzzi, Linden, and Naslund, the team of Anson Carter and the Sedin Brothers could have been a devastating second punch, good for 100 goals, 200 assists, All Star and playoffs glory. If only they weren't Anson Carter and the Sedin Brothers.

and that's the lot of it.

Four weeks blow past in a blink, a haze of head colds and hockey seminars, bad movies and Baseball games. I came from Greenpoint, and I can go back to Greenpoint. So I apologize to you, dear reader, for promising thirty Robertus Reviews and not delivering.

The new season starts in a shade under forty-seven hours, and so I will be here on the burgundy couch, a Virgil to your Dante, Robertus, the Sublime Sportsman.

Coming Soon! Robertus Predicts the final standings for all thirty teams, Opening Night, and Some Guy Named Mike on Major League pitching!